- A study on the Saturday, November 18, Anambra gubernatorial election has shown how parties would fair
- The study was done by the League of Anambra Entrepreneurial Professionals (LEAP)
- The study said five prominent candidates from different parties would be leading at the poll tomorrow
A study by the League of Anambra Entrepreneurial Professionals (LEAP) has shown how various parties participating in the Saturday, November 18, Anambra gubernatorial election will fair at the poll.
The study released on Thursday, November 16, by LEAP's secretary general, Emmanuel Ezenwa, showed that five prominent candidates will be leading at the poll tomorrow.
The report's findings listed Willie Obiano (APGA), Osita Chidoka (UPP), Oseloka Obaze (PDP), Tony Nwoye (APC) and Godwin Ezeemo (PPA) out of the flag bearers of 37 different political parties as the most prominent candidates for the Anambra election.
LEAP's study also revealed that voters across the state are already aligned along major demography lines including zoning, religious denomination, pro-Biafra groups, among many others.
It also said that while Anambra state has three senatorial zones (north, central and south) while the candidates of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressives Congress (APC) are from the north, which has a total of 738,332 registered voters.
However, The flag bearer for the United Progressive Party (UPP), Osita Chidoka, is from Anambra central which has a total of 747,695 registered voters while the Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA) has its candidate from the south which has 672,144 registered voters; according to INEC data.
LEAP said an analysis of voter's distribution along zoning lines highlights advantage for UPP, though in neck-to neck contest with APGA.
The organization said the UPP likely to enjoy a block voting in Anambra central; in Anambra north and south because the electorates are divided among APGA, PDP and APC.
The study also said that in Anambra north, the district of the incumbent governor is likely to garner the highest number of votes.
The study said Obiano's votes would possibly reach over 41% while other parties particularly APC and PDP, whose candidates are also from the north, share the remaining 59% with UPP and PPA, making considerable inroads in the zone.
LEAP also said that in the southern part of the state, sentiments of transfer of power from north to south after four years is likely to push APGA’s electoral fortune to net a possible 32.7% while the UPP whose deputy governor candidate hails from densely populated Orumba area is likely to net up to 31.9%.
The study said in Anambra central where Chidoka is sole contender, a high level of solidarity is expected to play out to deliver block votes.
While his Idemili area has the highest demography of active voters in Anambra elections, his hometown, Obosi has the highest number of active voters from a single town. UPP is therefore expected to net over 69% of the votes, pushing it generally ahead of others along zoning lines.
On religious denomination, Anambra is divided into three main religious groupings namely; Catholics, Anglicans and Pentecostals. LEAP findings show that Catholics account for about 36% of the voting population, Anglicans account for 35% while the Pentecostals and others produce the remaining 29%.
The denomination factor also appears to favour UPP, whose candidate Chidoka, being the prominent Anglican in the race, is likely to get a block vote from the church. The candidates of APGA, APC and PDP, who are all Catholics, will have to divide the votes from Catholics, reducing their fortunes at the poll.
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With many pro-Biafra groups rescinding their earlier ‘no election’ decision, they will become a major factor determining the direction of votes. Findings by LEAP show that the UPP will benefit hugely from the development.
The groups have strong inclinations towards UPP mainly because of the supportive stance of the candidate and the party’s ideological stand in support of right to self-determination and referendum.
Bye and large, elections always pull surprises and Anambra elections are never short of surprises. For now, parties and candidates appear ready for the election as stakeholders harp on INEC for a credible, free and fair poll.
NAIJ.com earlier reported that the security in Anambra state has been beefed up ahead of Saturday's election.
It was gathered that the anti-bomb squad of the Nigeria Police Force also detected a object which looks like an improvised explosive device at the headquarters of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
The device was uncovered when the anti-bomb squad team combed the compound of the state's electoral office on Friday, November 17.
Anambra election: Awka residents speak on who they will vote for and why on NAIJ.com TV